Self-driving cars just had one of their best months yet
For most people, self-driving cars are just an abstraction, something they read about sometimes in the press but still consider a far-off, futuristic fantasy. They read the headlines and scoff, “Not in my lifetime.” But the events of this past month may help put a lot of that skepticism to rest. There was a flurry of activity in both Congress and the private sector over the past few weeks, signaling a key shift in the trajectory of self-driving cars and proving that these vehicles are much closer to reality than most people think.
Experts whose job it is to pay close attention to this emerging technology have been amazed with the tempo of developments in the last few weeks. “Out of the past three years that I’ve been researching [autonomous vehicle] policy, this is by far the most significant month of Congressional activity and partnerships I’ve seen yet,” said Greg Rogers, a policy analyst at the Eno Center for Transportation. “What we’re observing right now is that autonomous vehicles are moving from their infancy into their adolescence.”
Very first, and most significantly, the very first federal legislation to regulate self-driving cars in the US was introduced on June 20th. These bills — there are fourteen of them — would give the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) the power to increase the number of self-driving cars on public roads. And they would preempt the current patchwork of state laws regarding the enforcement of autonomous driving. Automakers and the big tech companies are in favor of the bills for two main reasons: they want to get their robot cars on the road swifter than their competitors, and they would rather abide by one overarching set of federal laws than fifty individual state laws.
The package of bill includes a proposal to increase federal motor vehicle safety standard (FMVSS) exemption caps from Two,500 to 100,000 — which is a wonky way of telling that it would permit automakers and tech firms to test (and eventually deploy) autonomous vehicles without steering wheels, brake pedals, and other components designed with humans in mind and required by federal safety standards. Right now, these companies are testing cars that can at best be considered Level three autonomous, meaning they still require some human intervention. Some states have passed laws permitting for the testing of higher levels of automation, but most have yet to take up any legislation.
“The enabling factor — and maybe the limiting factor — will be the passage of the laws being considered by Congress right now,” Rogers said. “Companies like Waymo, Uber, and GM (via Lyft) can only get a critical mass of fully driverless cars on the road if Congress expands NHTSA’s exemption authorities and preempts the patchwork of state regulations that are creating a lot of uncertainty right now.”
And even more surprising, there shows up to be some bipartisan consensus around these bills, proving that even in a gridlocked, polarized political environment, Silicon Valley and the big automakers still hold enormous sway over politicians. “Silicon Valley is still the golden child of America — the actual shining city on a hill, with Detroit just a little bit behind,” Rogers said. “GOP naturally wants to seize on this chance to build up an industry.”
Some experts were astonished by how quickly Congress tackled automated vehicle policy. Jim McPherson, an attorney and consultant on self-driving cars, said that Congressional act was “both long overdue. yet remarkably rapid,” because the Obama administration’s Federal Automated Vehicles Policy just came out last September. “Whether the final bills look like House and Senate drafts is yet to be determined,” he added.
Still, there are a few dissenting voices. Safety and consumer advocates decry the bills as an enormous giveaway to the companies Waymo (née Google) and Uber that are building and testing self-driving cars. Their opposition could hurt the passage of these bills, especially since the motivating force behind self-driving cars is their promise to reduce or eliminate traffic fatalities.
“While we see excellent potential for the future of autonomous vehicles, basic safeguards and reasonable industry accountability are essential,” Jacqueline Gillan, president of the Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety, testified at a House hearing on the legislation. “Testing and government oversight will not inhibit technological creativity and innovation, but without them, it will inhibit and menace public protection and acceptance.”
Beyond Washington, DC, a number of key deals were made, providing us a clearer sense of how autonomous vehicles will be physically managed as a commercial asset. Its all joy and games to talk about self-driving cars taking over the roads, saving hundreds of thousands of lives and maybe putting just as many people out of work. But who will operate these cars? Who will own them? And how will we use them? This past month, we ultimately got some answers.
Alphabet’s Waymo announced a partnership with Avis to manage its fleet of autonomous vehicles in Arizona. Meantime, it was exposed that Apple is leasing its puny fleet of self-driving cars from Hertz. That’s right: old-fashioned car rental companies are all of a sudden in vogue.
Legacy car rental companies have long worried about their place in the “new mobility” ecosystem. Over the last year, Hertz stock had dropped by more than seventy five percent amid falling revenue and profit, and investor concern about the role rental companies will play in an automotive industry where self-driving cars and ride-hailing play a greater role. But the news about Apple has sent Hertz’s stock soaring to its highest levels in almost two years. Avis’ stock was also up noticeably.
The headlines sound forgettable at very first glance. But both Avis and Hertz have something that most tech companies working on driverless cars lack: a sprawling network of customers and vehicles, and decades-long practice in managing giant fleets of cars with high usage rates.
Theoretically, self-driving cars will need more maintenance than personally possessed vehicles, especially if they are deployed in a ride-hailing capacity. Waymo and Uber have said they envision their cars permanently picking up and ripping off off passengers, conjuring up the pic of the “perpetual tour.” John Krafcik, CEO of Waymo, estimates his vehicles will log around six times more miles per year than average cars. That will mean more wear and rip than your average vehicle — which Avis and Hertz are flawlessly placed to take on.
“Frankly, car rental companies are the best placed to reinvent themselves and sustain in this (for lack of a better term) courageous fresh world of transportation technology,” Rogers said.
There was a bunch more news this past month that shoved the needle forward on self-driving cars. GM announced that it had begun production of one hundred thirty more self-driving Chevy Bolts to eventually add to its fleet of fifty that are presently being tested on the streets of San Francisco. Nvidia, one of the largest chipmakers in the world, said it would work with Volvo and Volkswagen to build high-tech “brains” for their self-driving cars. The growing list of partnerships involving self-driving cars underscores the assumption that no one company will be the predominate player in this industry. In the early days, everyone will need to work together to overcome societal roadblocks.
“Don’t expect any of these latest partnership agreements to be long-lived, entirely sensational, or without an escape clause,” McPherson, the automated vehicle consultant, said. “Parties will use the relationships to learn complementary businesses, attempt out what works, and attempt to be very first to market with an end-to-end solution. The prize for being first-to-market with a safe, profitable autonomous vehicle is beyond estimation, but at the very least, that company will be worth as much Uber’s valuation.”
Moreover, these announcement may put to rest some of the more nagging questions about self-driving cars. But they most likely won’t do much to dampen the skepticism that surrounds this technology. As a species, we have been driving automobiles for well over a century. They wreck our figures and our souls, but we are addicted to their cold, hard steel. We believe their marketing campaigns when it appeals to our collective sense of rugged individualism. Latest surveys showcase that the automakers will have to pry the steering wheel from our cold, dead fingers before we let robots take over our roads.
That’s why puny experiments, like the one the University of Michigan launched recently, will make a big difference. Beginning this fall, the university plans to deploy two downright driverless shuttles, manufactured by French startup Navya, to service a two-mile route. The shuttle can carry a maximum of fifteen passengers, and lacks a steering wheel or pedals.
These experiments permits for more accurate mapping, which in turn leads to more accurate driving. As the technology improves, self-driving cars will be able to drive confidently in broader geographic areas. But the need to embark puny underpins the skepticism that many people still have toward self-driving vehicles. A gradual roll-out — on university campuses, corporate campuses, and in puny, geofenced areas — will help acclimate people to the driverless practice. Once people realize that self-driving cars aren’t going to kill them, and can actually be kind of adorable and convenient, the technology will have truly arrived.
“It has been a very significant month for moving this technology past the development stage and into implementation,” said Michael Ramsey, an analyst at Gartner. “Many of the practical roadblocks may soon become apparent, but the momentum behind self-driving vehicles emerges sustainable.”
Self-driving cars just had one of their best months yet – The Brink
Self-driving cars just had one of their best months yet
For most people, self-driving cars are just an abstraction, something they read about sometimes in the press but still consider a far-off, futuristic fantasy. They read the headlines and scoff, “Not in my lifetime.” But the events of this past month may help put a lot of that skepticism to rest. There was a flurry of activity in both Congress and the private sector over the past few weeks, signaling a key shift in the trajectory of self-driving cars and proving that these vehicles are much closer to reality than most people think.
Experts whose job it is to pay close attention to this emerging technology have been affected with the tempo of developments in the last few weeks. “Out of the past three years that I’ve been researching [autonomous vehicle] policy, this is by far the most significant month of Congressional act and partnerships I’ve seen yet,” said Greg Rogers, a policy analyst at the Eno Center for Transportation. “What we’re watching right now is that autonomous vehicles are moving from their infancy into their adolescence.”
Very first, and most significantly, the very first federal legislation to regulate self-driving cars in the US was introduced on June 20th. These bills — there are fourteen of them — would give the US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) the power to increase the number of self-driving cars on public roads. And they would preempt the current patchwork of state laws regarding the enforcement of autonomous driving. Automakers and the big tech companies are in favor of the bills for two main reasons: they want to get their robot cars on the road quicker than their competitors, and they would rather abide by one overarching set of federal laws than fifty individual state laws.
The package of bill includes a proposal to increase federal motor vehicle safety standard (FMVSS) exemption caps from Two,500 to 100,000 — which is a wonky way of telling that it would permit automakers and tech firms to test (and eventually deploy) autonomous vehicles without steering wheels, brake pedals, and other components designed with humans in mind and required by federal safety standards. Right now, these companies are testing cars that can at best be considered Level three autonomous, meaning they still require some human intervention. Some states have passed laws permitting for the testing of higher levels of automation, but most have yet to take up any legislation.
“The enabling factor — and maybe the limiting factor — will be the passage of the laws being considered by Congress right now,” Rogers said. “Companies like Waymo, Uber, and GM (via Lyft) can only get a critical mass of fully driverless cars on the road if Congress expands NHTSA’s exemption authorities and preempts the patchwork of state regulations that are creating a lot of uncertainty right now.”
And even more surprising, there shows up to be some bipartisan consensus around these bills, proving that even in a gridlocked, polarized political environment, Silicon Valley and the big automakers still hold enormous sway over politicians. “Silicon Valley is still the golden child of America — the actual shining city on a hill, with Detroit just a little bit behind,” Rogers said. “GOP naturally wants to seize on this chance to build up an industry.”
Some experts were astonished by how quickly Congress tackled automated vehicle policy. Jim McPherson, an attorney and consultant on self-driving cars, said that Congressional activity was “both long overdue. yet remarkably rapid,” because the Obama administration’s Federal Automated Vehicles Policy just came out last September. “Whether the final bills look like House and Senate drafts is yet to be determined,” he added.
Still, there are a few dissenting voices. Safety and consumer advocates decry the bills as an enormous giveaway to the companies Waymo (née Google) and Uber that are building and testing self-driving cars. Their opposition could hurt the passage of these bills, especially since the motivating force behind self-driving cars is their promise to reduce or eliminate traffic fatalities.
“While we see superb potential for the future of autonomous vehicles, basic safeguards and reasonable industry accountability are essential,” Jacqueline Gillan, president of the Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety, testified at a House hearing on the legislation. “Testing and government oversight will not inhibit technological creativity and innovation, but without them, it will inhibit and menace public protection and acceptance.”
Beyond Washington, DC, a number of key deals were made, providing us a clearer sense of how autonomous vehicles will be physically managed as a commercial asset. Its all joy and games to talk about self-driving cars taking over the roads, saving hundreds of thousands of lives and maybe putting just as many people out of work. But who will operate these cars? Who will own them? And how will we use them? This past month, we eventually got some answers.
Alphabet’s Waymo announced a partnership with Avis to manage its fleet of autonomous vehicles in Arizona. Meantime, it was exposed that Apple is leasing its puny fleet of self-driving cars from Hertz. That’s right: old-fashioned car rental companies are all of a sudden in vogue.
Legacy car rental companies have long worried about their place in the “new mobility” ecosystem. Over the last year, Hertz stock had dropped by more than seventy five percent amid falling revenue and profit, and investor concern about the role rental companies will play in an automotive industry where self-driving cars and ride-hailing play a greater role. But the news about Apple has sent Hertz’s stock soaring to its highest levels in almost two years. Avis’ stock was also up noticeably.
The headlines sound forgettable at very first glance. But both Avis and Hertz have something that most tech companies working on driverless cars lack: a sprawling network of customers and vehicles, and decades-long practice in managing enormous fleets of cars with high usage rates.
Theoretically, self-driving cars will need more maintenance than personally wielded vehicles, especially if they are deployed in a ride-hailing capacity. Waymo and Uber have said they envision their cars permanently picking up and ripping off off passengers, conjuring up the pic of the “perpetual excursion.” John Krafcik, CEO of Waymo, estimates his vehicles will log around six times more miles per year than average cars. That will mean more wear and rip than your average vehicle — which Avis and Hertz are flawlessly placed to take on.
“Frankly, car rental companies are the best placed to reinvent themselves and get through in this (for lack of a better term) plucky fresh world of transportation technology,” Rogers said.
There was a bunch more news this past month that shoved the needle forward on self-driving cars. GM announced that it had begun production of one hundred thirty more self-driving Chevy Bolts to eventually add to its fleet of fifty that are presently being tested on the streets of San Francisco. Nvidia, one of the largest chipmakers in the world, said it would work with Volvo and Volkswagen to build high-tech “brains” for their self-driving cars. The growing list of partnerships involving self-driving cars underscores the assumption that no one company will be the predominate player in this industry. In the early days, everyone will need to work together to overcome societal roadblocks.
“Don’t expect any of these latest partnership agreements to be long-lived, entirely special, or without an escape clause,” McPherson, the automated vehicle consultant, said. “Parties will use the relationships to learn complementary businesses, attempt out what works, and attempt to be very first to market with an end-to-end solution. The prize for being first-to-market with a safe, profitable autonomous vehicle is beyond estimation, but at the very least, that company will be worth as much Uber’s valuation.”
Moreover, these announcement may put to rest some of the more nagging questions about self-driving cars. But they most likely won’t do much to dampen the skepticism that surrounds this technology. As a species, we have been driving automobiles for well over a century. They wreck our figures and our souls, but we are addicted to their cold, hard steel. We believe their marketing campaigns when it appeals to our collective sense of rugged individualism. Latest surveys showcase that the automakers will have to pry the steering wheel from our cold, dead fingers before we let robots take over our roads.
That’s why petite experiments, like the one the University of Michigan launched recently, will make a gigantic difference. Beginning this fall, the university plans to deploy two downright driverless shuttles, manufactured by French startup Navya, to service a two-mile route. The shuttle can carry a maximum of fifteen passengers, and lacks a steering wheel or pedals.
These experiments permits for more accurate mapping, which in turn leads to more accurate driving. As the technology improves, self-driving cars will be able to drive confidently in broader geographic areas. But the need to embark puny underpins the skepticism that many people still have toward self-driving vehicles. A gradual roll-out — on university campuses, corporate campuses, and in petite, geofenced areas — will help acclimate people to the driverless practice. Once people realize that self-driving cars aren’t going to kill them, and can actually be kind of adorable and convenient, the technology will have truly arrived.
“It has been a very significant month for moving this technology past the development stage and into implementation,” said Michael Ramsey, an analyst at Gartner. “Many of the practical roadblocks may soon become apparent, but the momentum behind self-driving vehicles shows up sustainable.”